The Bigger, Badder, Even More Serious Thread

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sun May 19, 2024 12:18 pm

{{ Whats remarkable about that Halfy is Netanhayu's unhinged response to it according to the BBC-

'Mr Netanyahu said that to meet Mr Gantz's demands would lead to "the end of the war and a defeat for Israel, the abandoning of most of the hostages, leaving Hamas intact and the establishment of a Palestinian state".'

He could not be clearer here - Israel does not want to stop the slaughter, they  will not allow Palestinians to have their own state - they will do anything to prevent this happening or a 2 state solution being viable, even if that means making Gaza uninhabitable or massacring so many Palestinians there aren't enough left to form a state. Netanhayu's main aim is the prevention of a Palestinian state, one way or another.}}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Thu May 23, 2024 2:50 pm

{{ From Russia today under theheadline - 'Kiev backtracks on anti-Russian Lord of the Rings slur ban.'

'Ukraine’s media censor has withdrawn instructions urging news outlets not to use insults when referring to Russian troops and officials. The country’s National Council on Television and Radio Broadcasting has taken down an advisory on the widespread Ukrainian media practice of labelling Russians “orcs”.'

I still find it both weird and disturbing that Tolkien is somehow caught up in the Russian-Ukraine war. }}

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Post by halfwise Thu May 23, 2024 9:44 pm

Oh I think anyone shelling you would be described as an orc. Tolkien himself applied the term to a motorcyclist.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Fri May 31, 2024 6:51 am

{{ Well got to admit Im surprised at Trump being found guilty on all 34 charges. If I was a betting man I'd have put my money on a split decision and a mistrial. }}

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Post by azriel Fri May 31, 2024 1:10 pm

He has to be found guilty, ( whether he is or not )

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Post by halfwise Fri May 31, 2024 1:35 pm

There's so many things he could have been found guilty of over the decades, but he's been a master at staying out of court via countersuits that convinces his victims that it's cheaper to just give up.

I would prefer they had gotten him on something less technical. Paying somebody off to keep silent is not a crime. The crime was not reporting it as a campaign expense, and doctoring the books to hide it. It seems doctoring the books itself was not enough because it was purely internal. The primary crime of campaign fraud is contorted enough that it doesn't come across as a real crime.

Was it politically motivated? Yes. Did he do it? Yes. Should all this time and trouble been spent on this? I'm not convinced and I think most of the voting public will not be convinced.

I'd rather he be convicted on trying to subvert the election process.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:49 pm

{{ Biden's peace plan for Israel/Palestine is confusing me. He says it's an Israeli proposal he is pushing, but Netanyahu doesn't seem to know anything about it, or be inclined to it in the slightest, saying, "conditions for ending the war have not changed" and that there will be no ceasefire until Israel's war aims are met- i.e. the complete destruction of Hamas and return of all hostages, which as he already admitted a few days ago will take months at best of continued war in Gaza. His official office told Al Jazeer, “The notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are fulfilled is a non-starter.”

So whose peace plan is it? - Israel's as Biden insists, or did Israel not know anything about it as Netanyahu seems to indicate? }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Wed Jun 05, 2024 3:38 pm

{{ In case no one had noticed, and I wouldn't blame you, the UK is having a General Election, in which the main question is not will the Tories lose power, but how badly will they lose power as they are certainly going to lose it.
It's also been farcical so far. From day one. First Sunak went to Wales for a photo op where the multi-billionaire pretended to be down with the working class folks of a Welsh factory, during which to prove what an everyday bloke he was he decided to talk football, and he asked them all if they were looking forward to an exciting summer of football in the Euros. So it's unfortunate no one told him Wales failed to qualify for the Euros and will not in fact be there.
Then Labour who are so far ahead in polls they pretty much don't have to do anything at all to win, managed to spend their first week campaigning embroiled in a row over whether exiled candidate Diane Abbot would be readmitted into the party after saying only black people know what racism is, white folks like Jews and Romani don't, and if she would be allowed to stand. After mixed messages from the top of the party and a week of press having a field day and using it to attack Labour and bury any news about the Tories, they finally decided yes she could be allowed back in and could stand.
The Lib-dems are reduced to PR stunts like photobombing PM interviews by sailing past in the background draped in vote lib dem banners, this is what our politics debate is now. Things that will make a 10 second tik tok meme.
The SNP I have to say got off to about the best start of the bunch, they did something rather clever, when Sunak announced his surprise election date everyone panicked, hence the messy starts to the major party campaigns. The SNP instead didn't bother launching their election campaign until a week later, when they got the free press of no competing launch, and it gave them a week to plan ahead. So it's been a smoother start, I don't think it'll make a massive difference, I expect the SNP to come with somewhere between 17-30 MPs at best after this from the current 43, Labour are clearly on an upswing nationally, the idea of not just outing the Tories, but punishing the Tories is very high in peoples minds. They want this to hurt, even if it means voting Labour to inflict the maximum damage.

But in light of the low calibre of our election discord so far, I know where my vote is going- }}


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Post by Pettytyrant101 Mon Jun 10, 2024 6:49 am

{{{ Europe has gone right! Well majority centre right.
Was a big night of European Elections, and its the right who can celebrate, not just making gains right across Europe in almost every nation, but also forcing France into calling a general election after it was clear the government were going to lose to the right, and lose badly.

So what is behind this surge in Europe going right? Well I think it comes down to three main things, first culture wars, the rhetoric right across the parties on the right was largely the same wherever you went, the phrase “protecting traditional values” translated into a multitude of languages came up over and over, by which they mean Christianity and traditional gender roles.
The second thing is immigration, and in particular fear of Muslims, this in part ties back into the culture wars thing, as Muslim culture is increasingly being viewed as fundamentally incompatible with Western thought and society. A combination of climate change, economics and wars have led to huge numbers of the planet on the move in search of better lives and has pushed immigration numbers into Europe up and up.

And lastly, and maybe in this current moment the biggest driver of the rights vote, fear of Russia. There is a growing sense of inevitability in Europe over war with Russia, not so much an 'if' as 'when' and the right have always been electorally stronger than the left on matters of security. The worry is of course that the more hawkish the people who get elected are, the more inevitable it makes war. But there is a genuine fear, especially along eastern European countries that Russia will not stop with Ukraine.

So I think these are the three biggest factors feeding into the rise of the right wing parties across Europe.

Britain has historically, as often been the case, is running a bit ahead of the rest of Europe. We did this lurch to the right years ago with Brexit and then Boris, and then Truss and Sunak - it has been so cataclysmically bad that  uniquely in Europe Britain is about to turn hard to the left to get rid of the right they turned to to save them. I suspect Europe will find much the same result in ten years time too. }}

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Post by halfwise Mon Jun 10, 2024 12:59 pm

Still a toss-up here on which way the US will go in the next election in 6 months.  The only neighboring country issue we have equivalent to Ukraine is the immigration pressure on the southern border, and Biden's done a terrible job managing that.  If we didn't have Trump as the only candidate on the right that issue alone would drive Biden right out of office (leaving aside his age), but there's so much fear and loathing for Trump (balanced by near idolatry) that nobody can predict which way things will go.

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Post by Lancebloke Mon Jun 10, 2024 1:17 pm

Maybe one day we will learn how to run countries. Doesn't seem like that will be any time soon though.
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Post by halfwise Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:49 pm

Doesn't matter. In 20 years AI will be running everything.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Thu Jun 13, 2024 1:34 am

{{ Hard to tell what's going on around the US peace proposal for Israel/Palestine, it's all a bit murky at the moment with competing versions of what's going on doing the rounds.

The Israel and US side say Hamas accepted the proposal earlier, but now have added amendments to it, some of which Blinken claims are simply 'unworkable', and he is putting the blame on Hamas, saying all they had to do was agree to something they already agreed to and just say "yes".

However Hamas say this is not what has happened at all. That they did and still do accept the proposal, but that Israel then amended the one they originally agreed to, and this is just their response to those amendments and adding their own counter amendments. And the fault therefore is with Israel and the US who are lying about the proposal being the same as the one Hams previously agreed to.

So all a bit unclear. We do know Israel is not keen on this deal, they say they agreed to it, but no minister has actually publicly said they support it, nor has Netanyahu yet. So I would not be surprised if they have altered the deal Darth Vader style, "Pray I do not alter it further"! And it's hard to see what Hamas get out of keeping the war going, though it could be simple cowardice on their leader's behalf who will have to answer for their crimes. Hamas may survive as a political party in the future, in the way Sinn Féin does in Ireland out of the IRA, but probably not with its current leadership, certainly not with its military wing which would have to be disbanded for there to be peace. And there will be those in that part of Hamas who do not want any peace, both for reasons of zealous hatred and religious hatred, and to protect themselves from accountability for their own crimes. And it's hard to apply too much logic to a conflict between two people fighting each other because they believe their own particular version of their made up super being is the correct version of the made up super being.

So both sides have some motivation to be lying here and to be completely irrational. }}

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Post by halfwise Thu Jun 13, 2024 1:54 am

What Hamas gets out of the war is more international support. I think their leader is more than happy to sacrifice more lives so long as he sees popular opinion swinging further his way as a result.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Thu Jun 13, 2024 2:05 am

{{ If that's the case it's a dangerous calculation. Support, particularly at the level of other countries governments, is very much dependent on Hamas taking up reasonable offers for peace. If they simply contrive ways to continually refuse to do so, that international support will start to quickly dry up, and the narrative that Hamas are the ones blocking peace further supports the pro-Israeli argument that Hamas need to be removed first before there can be peace.
So Hamas will have to walk a very fine line with that tactic, I don't think they can keep the war going just for that reason, as a point will come, and fairly quickly, when patience with it will run out, and it will backfire badly. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Fri Jun 14, 2024 10:36 am

{{ Something interesting might finally be happening in the UK General Election, the Tories have come third in a major poll behind Reform.

For those not up on UK politics, first there was UKIP an anti-EU based party, headed by self promoter supreme Nigel Farage, it was running in fear of UKIP stealing Tory seats in their heartlands that made David Cameron call the Brexit Referendum.

After Brexit was won Farage resigned as leader of UKIP in order to go make shovel loads of money Stateside on Fox news cheerleading Trump, and UKIP quickly fell into complete disarray and general scandal. It re-emerged several years later under a new leader, Richard Tice, as Reform, with Farage as a sort of informal cheerleader and promoter.

To fast-forward to now, Sunak called the election and Tice held a press conference where he officially stepped down into a Deputy role and handed the leadership reigns to Farage.
And now they have overtaken the Tories in this latest poll.

Now it should come with the caveat it is a poll, and only one, even if it's one of the more credible sources for polling in the UK. If it's repeated consistently, then we might see something we haven't seen for a while, the collapse and possible even death of a UK party. It wouldn't be the first time, anyone remember the Whigs, or more recently the SDP, whose descendants are now the Liberal Democrats? But for it to happen to the Tories, that would be a big one.

But its not beyond belief that Reform might replace them as the dominant right of centre party, and that will be the telling thing about where the country is at, the centre bit, as the Tories are right of centre, but Reform they are just right, they are not close to centre, nor are they far right (though some members are in much the same way not all Trump supporters are homophobic or racist, but they do tend to be attracted to him, in the same way Reform attracts unsavoury elements with its rhetoric). If they do replace the Tories it will indicate the country, or at least England, as Scotland hasn't voted any sort of right for over half a century, has likewise embedded its right wingness and moved from the centre ground of politics. }}

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