The Bigger, Badder, Even More Serious Thread

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ When you believe you face an inevitable oblivion you have nothing to lose. The hostage taking is double fold- its solid military tactics when your main threat is a ground invasion. And I think more importantly, they are the negotiating tools to ensure that the talks between Israel and Saudi include the future of Palestine. In fact that has to be the outcome and agreeing to it now would probably result in an almost immediate ceasefire and reduction in escalation. But Israel never will agree to that, they have made it clear they intend to completely ignore all appeals and all international laws and plan to continue increasing illegal settlements, indeed their plans are to accelerate their construction. And no one in the international community has shown the slightest interest in stopping them, more so, we help them do it. If Saudi effectively signs a treaty that means they too turn a blind eye to the Palestinians then what's left for them? Better even to end in blaze of glory and dignity than see your people reduced to homeless beggars ground into the dirt in Israeli streets that used to be yours.}}

[halfwise]

It's true, nothing has worked to stop the settlements. I think a better approach would have been to destroy the roads connecting the settlements, then not attack the settlements (women and children) but to stand around them en masse and psychologically intimidate them into abandonment. People can't take being stared at silently for long. If they build walls, blow them up but don't attack people. The greatest risk there is being shot by the settlers, but then they lose sympathy, especially in the age of cell phone videos. Long and grueling but eventually effective.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ How long is long? How gruelling does it have to be and for how long do you expect a people to take it for before retaliation against an oppressor is justified? Israel first built illegal settlements on occupied land in 1967. And it's only got worse for the Palestinians every decade since. }}

[halfwise]

They have tried peaceful protest, but the long grinding soft protest than Ghandi and Martin Luther King used is just not part of the middle east psyche. If it was, they'd eventually win. But it takes cool heads and staying power for relentless years.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ The problem is Israel must be forced to accept the right for a Palestinian state, and vice versa. Israel has never been serious about it, giving it lip service while it served their interest to do so and the whole time continued their oppression and expanded their occupation.
The alternative to Israel agreeing to a two-state solution is this, outbreaks of desperate violence and atrocities against civilians by both sides, or the genocide of the Palestinians, neither of which are acceptable outcomes. But only Israel can change it. Hamas and Palestine are not in a position to do anything other than they do, lash out. }}

[halfwise]

Israel is about to lose it's momentary sympathy by performing an all out siege on the West Bank. We should not be supporting what they are about to do. It's the typical middle east ricochet in which every bounce gets larger.

Yes, Israel should have been made to accept two states long ago and pull out their settlements. It's mainly America's fault that they haven't.

[Mrs Figg]

The problem is that the Palestinians don't seem to have a moderate or serious leader with which to negotiate. and Hamas has filled the vacuum. They don't have a Yasser Arafat fighting their corner on the world stage.

[Lancebloke]

{{Israel first built illegal settlements on occupied land in 1967. And it's only got worse for the Palestinians every decade since. }}

Yes and mostly in response to the Arab coalition that tried to destroy them. This has been going on back and forth for a long time before 1967 and long before 1948 when Israel was founded.

Hamas as well as other entities (including governments) have clearly targeted nothing short of wiping Israel off the map as their goal. What do you do with that?

Israel clearly wants to keep existing as a nation and even with the best will in the world keeps creating new generations of Hamas fodder whenever they launch a "defensive" operation (and we all know many of them are not defensive and many powerful Israelis don't have the best will in the world).

Honestly, I don't see this ending without an ethincially driven genocide. There is too much history and bad blood and far too little will to move passed it.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ I think there was, and may still be a sliver of hope. Things have changed in the Arab world since Israel first invaded. The normalising of relations is a good thing and to be encouraged, if the majority of surrounding Muslim states officially recognise Israel and its right to exist that's exactly what is needed.
However, the Palestinians and their claims cannot be simply ignored and sidelined from those negotiations as they have been. I am certain the Palestinian Authority, which though connected to Hamas is not the same thing and has far more moderates in it, and are the official government, would I believe sign up to recognising Israel if it came with suitable condition for the creation of a Palestinian state. After that world pressure and more importantly funding should keep things on course more or less for a possible peaceful resolution.
But Israel has to budge on its settlements and recognise their illegality, as does the US, first or nothing changes. But there is an opportunity here to be seized.}}

[halfwise]

What opportunity? Unless some shining radiant Palestinian leader shows up and says "this is a taste of the future, but it doesn't have to be this way." And oh, somebody has to slip Netanyahu a roofie at the same time.

The two sides are about to blow each other to smithereens. Is the Palestinian Authority about to truss up a bunch of Hamas leaders and deliver them to Israel with all the hostages? Nothing short of that will stop what is about to happen.

The only bright spot is that Israel has a history of treating prisoners humanely. Let's hope they capture more than they kill.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ There is always opportunity, sometimes more so when things are dark, at crisis points. There are some Hamas trust more than others, Egypt and Saudi are both in positions to apply pressure on Hamas, but not if they have nothing to offer or bargain with. The real meat of it I suspect will come out if there are hostage negotiations. That depends on if Israel figures it's worth going in after them, in which case many of the hostages will certainly be executed, or if they chose to negotiate. For that we have to look mainly to the US to apply pressure on Israel to negotiate. }}

[halfwise]

Actually my assessment of an attack is wrong, probably because of the hostages. Israel wants to starve out the west bank now. I guess we know who will starve first.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Saudi are mediating- 'Speaking to the Reuters news agency, a spokesman said the negotiations - including a possible prisoner swap - have been continuing since Saturday night and are "moving positively. Our priorities are to end the bloodshed, release the prisoners and make sure the conflict is contained with no regional spill over," foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said.'- BBC

Hamas however say they will not negotiate the hostages whilst conflict continues- this reinforces my view Hamas's plan is to get a ceasefire negotiated in order to open negotiations and force the matter of Palestinian state onto the agenda. Right there is that opportunity I spoke of. It is there for the taking.

Unfortunately Dr Evil, sorry Netanyahu seems to have something more bloody in mind- "what Hamas will experience will be difficult and terrible. This is only the beginning. Israel's response will change the Middle East".

One can only fear that his idea of change is to roll in and seize Gaza and occupy it in its entirety. If so that may well prove more than too provocative to bring in Hezbollah from Lebanon and even Iran. It would be the worse outcome. Once Iran is involved Russia is in and America are already in on the Israeli side. Combined with a European war already between the two this is not good. Israel could plunge us all into total war.}}

[halfwise]

Too wrapped up in rage to see opportunity. It will be a miracle if this comes out well.

[halfwise]

No idea who this guy is, but he seems to have some incisive analysis, lining up with Petty's suggestion that this is linked to the upcoming signing of the Arab/Israel agreement.

[halfwise]

Something I was not aware of, that the West Bank and the Gaza Strip have taken entirely different paths. In the West Bank Yassar Arafat became a peacemaker, and the West Bank now has a fairly vibrant existence. The Gaza Strip fell under the influence of Hamas.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ I'd agree overall with his analysis. But I think something very bad and final is about to happen. Israel has amaased troops for invasion and are telling the press scenes from Gaza "will be more difficult to understand and cope with" in the coming days.
Which sounds to me like they plan to indiscriminately kill anyone they find. }}

[halfwise]

A mass invasion of urban areas can't possibly go well. I'm afraid the indiscriminate killing will be worse than anything Hamas did. They may actually succeed in rooting out Hamas at the cost of inflaming the Arab world far beyond imagining, and I think the West's response will be numbness, then a turning away from Israel. It's too bad Netanyahu is at the helm - another leader would likely be more measured.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ So to be clear- what Hamas have done in regards the wilful slaughter is utterly condemnable and utterly without question acts of evil, and in an ideal world those responsible would be held accountable.
But you dont counter that with worse atrocities and I fear thats what Israel has planned. They have recruited up hundreds of thousands of young angry men with minimum experience, they have given civilians 24hrs to get out of Gaza- a demand everyone else says is meaningless as there is no way out, the one route out through Egypt the Egyptians say almost noone can get to because Israel keeps shelling the Palestinian side, where they know the civilians are trying to flee, and the crowning proof an atrocity, if not a genocide is planned, the Israeli Ambassador is reminding everyone that Hamas was elected in Gaza, or in other words there are no civilians. }}

As it stands its still Israel whse illegally occupying and settling anothers land, its Israel whose total ban on fod, water and lectricity entering Gaza is under Internatinal Law a clear War Crime. Why are we helping them commit this? }}

[halfwise]

We're definitely standing back with mouths firmly closed and letting it happen.

I have a slightly rosier take on it: Israel is at least targeting Hamas and not the population in general, though the way it's likely to play out it will be hard to see the difference.

The first 8 minutes before is a rather scathing and very true analysis of the Israeli political system and how it let things get this way in general.  Then follows a detailed analysis of the recent trigger of current events and how it may play out.

Though this is the guy who did an analysis of Scotland that Petty disagrees with.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ as per Israelis seeming attemtp at genocide they have offered the Palestinians a corridor to escape- then bombed itonce they started using it-

'Many people have died in a strike on a civilian convoy fleeing northern Gaza along one of the evacuation routes....The video is a vision of near unimaginable carnage...Several bodies, contorted by the force of the blast, are strewn across the flatbed. Pools of blood litter the surroundings.
As the view switches to the other side of the lorry, the body of a small child - clearly no more than four years old - shifts into view.
Other footage filmed before the strike showed that lorries similar to these were crammed with as many as 30 people journeying south, in search of safety.'- BBC

Thats right Israel you show them whose morally superior by blowing conveys of civilians in designated safe zones and children limb from limb. This is just another in a long list of Israeli war crimes we have witnessed. }}

[halfwise]

I'd like to see how Israel justifies that particular case. They are probably trying to avoid addressing it as much as possible.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Not as much as US media seems to be avoiding it, I cant find one US channel thats reporting on the criminality of Israeli's actions.
They are out of water now, 2 million civilians, according to reports people are having to drink from dirty wells or wherever they can find water, obviously massively increasing the risk of disease, especially among the young, the elderly and medically vulnerable. The hospitals are passed the brink of collapse, they have no medicines, no power, no water, no supplies coming in just more wounded (over 70% women and children), and Israel have told them they must shut down, even though that is too is a war crime.
And the West collectively is turning a blind eye.

I fear Israel will easily win its war, drive out or massacre the Palestinian people, and will steal, illegally occupy and settle Gaza. In fact I'm sure that's their plan.
But I also fear if they do, no Jew will be safe living outside of Israel. If they think anti-Semitism is bad now just wait till people respond to an Israeli massacre of innocents. They are making a rod for their own backs I am not sure, long term, they can survive being beaten with. }}

[halfwise]

I don't think they are interested in settling Gaza as it has not historical connections. The West Bank is near the heart of Biblical stories, though.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ The religious hardliners, who now are also the government in Israel, want it restored to its original biblical bounds, so they can rebuild their Temple and get their Messiah.
Frankly I think it's long past time the sane part of the world stopped listening to or taking seriously people with an obvious, albeit mostly liveable, mental health issue - they think their imaginary friend is real and wants them to do things. And organised religion is an evil that encourages this mental health condition in the young through indoctrination. Its appalling. Its child abuse.
How in the modern world a debate over land rights can still include the argument "our imaginary friend says it's ours, so it is and that justifies war crimes and driving people from their homes," beggars belief. }}