The Bigger, Badder, Even More Serious Thread

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Post by Lancebloke Thu Jul 04, 2024 4:11 pm

Will be doing mine in a bit. I think we all know where it is going tonight... remains to be seen where it goes over the next couple of years!
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Post by malickfan Thu Jul 04, 2024 5:07 pm

Happy kicking out the Tories day everyone Smile cheers pub  

With the exception of the 4 month period between my 18th bithday and the 2010 election I've spent my entire adult life under a Tory goverment, to say I'm ready for a change is an understatement.

Voted this afternoon, as with Petty I work nights but will be checking the results during my breaks, there seemed to be a good turnout at the polling station, though at least one person seemed confused about the photo ID rules.

Due to the 2023 review I'm in a newly created parliamentary seat and will be electing my MP for the first time (my previous seat had been conservative since the 1920's and even now I have my doubts it will change), it looks to be a tight race between LibDem/Conservative.

Labour will be our next goverment regardless of how any of us vote, still not sure how I feel about Starmer, but things can't get much worse can they?

Very curious to see what Reform's vote share (predicted to be 15-20% last I checked) translates to in terms of actual MPs, should Farage finally get elected I wonder how he''' actually do in the job dealing with local issues rather than grandstanding infront of the cameras.

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I think what comes out of a pig's rear end is more akin to what Peejers has given us-Azriel 20/9/2014
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Post by Lancebloke Sat Jul 06, 2024 2:03 pm

Well, that went about as expected down south.

Petty - do you think this is a tactical vote in Scotland to get the Tories out or a reflection of the current state of the SNP?
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Post by malickfan Sun Jul 07, 2024 7:46 am

Both me and my girlfriend's parilimentary seat boundaries changed this election, both of us were in Tory safe seats that hadn't changed hands in decades, both of us voted Lib Dem without much hope of change.

And sure enough my new MP is a Conservative...who actually used to be my Girlfriend's MP before the boundary change...and now her new MP is a Liberal Democrat...the irony is not lost on me.

Laughing No Suspect Rolling Eyes


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The Thorin: An Unexpected Rewrite December 2012 (I was on the money apparently)
The Tauriel: Desolation of Canon December 2013 (Accurate again!)
The Sod-it! : Battling my Indifference December 2014 (You know what they say, third time's the charm)

Well, that was worth the wait wasn't it  Suspect


I think what comes out of a pig's rear end is more akin to what Peejers has given us-Azriel 20/9/2014
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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sun Jul 07, 2024 8:03 am

Petty - do you think this is a tactical vote in Scotland to get the Tories out or a reflection of the current state of the SNP?

{{ As always here it's a complex mix, the margins for seats changing hands across the central belt (labours old heartlands which the SNP took off them and are now back to Labour) and where Labour made the bulk of their gains, only ever require a small percentage swing either way to change hands. But there was a palpable 'we can not just get rid of the Tories but punish them this time as England for once is one side with doing it' feeling in the air. Not just getting rid of the Tories, but getting back at the Tories for all they have done was quite a strong sentiment.

There was certainly an annoyance with the SNP and coming from different quarters - there are those who did not like Sturgeon's focus on social matters, there are those who do not think they have handled NHS or education well enough, on the islands and west coast there are issues with the time taking and cost in procuring ferries, then there are the traditional Unionists who simply are opposed to them.
On top of all those contenders you have in this election the massive change in England towards Labour, which was non-existent last time round - it was obvious Corbyn was never winning and Scotland voting Labour that time round would not be of any use, which contributed to the unprecedented number of seats the SNP won, and of course when you get an unprecedented number and it inevitably reverts to normal it looks like a worse collapse than it is.
So you have to drill down a bit into the voting percents in each seat- and much as in England this time out there is a notable lack of enthusiasm for Labour- they took seats off the SNP but not often by much and never a big vote swing. The vote swing was about 20%, but as its first past the post that translates to a loss for the SNP of about 70% of their seats, just as when they won nearly every seat in the country they did it on about 30% of the vote share. So most certainly the electorate have punished the SNP here, but at an election where it doesn't matter a great deal in terms of the SNP can't do much at Westminster anyway. So I feel it's more like the electorate firing a warning shot across the SNP's bow in view of the Scottish Parliament elections in 2 years time. Which of the factors pushed folk to vote labour this time, or a combination of them is hard to know exactly. But it looks pretty clear the SNP vote didn't completely collapse, but it fell just enough to give Labour the seats in a host of close marginals.

So far the independence polling remains unchanged, so I think the real tell will be the Scottish elections in two years time. Labour have their eyes on it, their campaign in the general election was more a pitch for the Scottish elections, with Scottish labour making promises in their campaign they can't actually deliver in Scotland unless they take over the Parliament. But two years is a long time, Swinney will have that long to show he has righted the ship and got the country working again, and Labour have 2 years to prove the Union works or prove it doesn't by failing.
Starmer is starting his Premiership with a tour of the nations (I always find thee rather too reminiscent of the royalty of old's Tours of the Nation, to be comfortable with them) and he has chosen to start it in Edinburgh, our capital and seat of the Scottish Parliament.

I suspect he will talk a lot about working with Scottish Labour, listening to Scotland and making the Union work for all parts of the nations, what will be more interesting is if he backs that up with more actual devolved powers or not.
If I could ask him a question in this regard it would be that, given in the past Scottish Labour leaders have described the way Westminster Labour views and treats them as, 'no better than a branch office', and with new promises of finally listening to Scotland and Scottish Labour, will he remove nuclear weapons from Scotland? Given that is the repeated position of the Scottish people in poll after poll and Scottish election after Scottish elections, as well as being the official position of his own party in Scotland. And if he won't listen doesn't that prove that it's business as usual, we will be listened to only when it suits, but not if it disagrees with England. }}}}


Last edited by Pettytyrant101 on Sun Jul 07, 2024 8:06 pm; edited 3 times in total

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sun Jul 07, 2024 9:29 am

{{ Remember Douglas Ross? He is the guy who was head of the Scottish Tories and whom I have described on here as the worst politician I have ever seen, a master of snatching defeat from victory and of fumbling the ball at every crucial moment, if there is a wrong political decision to make Ross would make it.
Well he went in the election, and it could not have been funnier or more typical of the man.

He was Scottish Tory party leader, which mean he was an MSP, you can't be an MSP and an MP at the same time, but he decided to try to hedge his bets in the election by standing as an MP, saying if he won he would give up being an MSP. This of course looked like he was treating being an MSP and Tory leader in Scotland as being second-best and just a backup for his career compared to being an MP, and just a backbencher in Westminster. On top of this outrage the seat he parachuted himself into to stand was one that belonged to a Tory who had been ill and was in hospital, with Ross claiming he was too weak to stand for reelection. But then the guy tweeted from his hospital bed that actually everything had gone fine and he was just recovering.
So on the back of these scandals around it all Ross decided to gamble his entire career on becoming an MP, in this election, which was obvious to anyone was going to be a Tory bloodbath. So he resigned as an MSP and as Tory Party leader (a job he still had 2 years left in), stood in his stolen constituency, and of course lost.
Losing his entire career in the process. The manner of it, the lack of political smarts at every decision, is a fitting testament to the man's career. Who was it said, 'nothing became him so well as the manner of his departure'? }}

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