Re: Election Night 2016: The Passion of Cheeto Jesus

by halfwise Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:39 am

ain't no way I'm going to bed until this is settled.

by Eldorion Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:45 am

Same. It feels later since I've been watching continuously since about 6 PM but there's still a lot of time to go. Fortunately I don't have to be at work until 2 PM so I can stay up for a pretty long time.

by halfwise Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:50 am

Interesting analysis from Michigan. Typically rural areas in Michigan turn out 19% of eligible voters, now it's 27%. This is the Trump effect, and we seem to be seeing a tidal wave.

Though I have to say, either number is shockingly low for a presidential election. I feel like I'm being bitch-slapped by an ivory tower.

by Eldorion Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:57 am

Trump has definitely energized a lot of people to vote despite not having a GOTV operation, which is certainly a slap in the face to conventional wisdom (admittedly based on past experience). Regardless of how this pans out this is definitely much closer than I expected. While Clinton has enjoyed support in high turnout Hispanic areas, African American turnout in many areas is lower than it was for Obama and that has definitely hurt her.

by Eldorion Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:00 am

Apparently Politico has called Florida for Trump. One of the BBC data guys was saying there will be some Florida votes not counted until tomorrow but that probably won't be enough.

by halfwise Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:03 am

Hate to say it, but Trump saying the polls were wrong sounds like truth.

by halfwise Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:06 am

I foresee Trump winning popular vote, Clinton winning electoral vote, shitstorm to follow.

by Ringdrotten Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:08 am

Going to be an interesting day at work today, me thinks I'll be drinking some more coffee than I usually do.

by Eldorion Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:11 am

FiveThirtyEight definitely comes out of this looking much better than other polling aggregators. And while I'm not a professional my level of confidence coming into this was definitely too high.

FL and NC are clearly in Trump's column by now. The Upper Midwest and perhaps Pennsylvania will probably decide this thing.

by David H Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:16 am

halfwise wrote:Hate to say it, but Trump saying the polls were wrong sounds like truth.

Yeah, the polls put a lot of weight on what has happened in past elections, but to assume that Obama voters would necessarily vote for Hillary was perhaps a bridge too far. I think there's a lot more potential independent and protest voters out there than the polls show .

by David H Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:17 am

So it sounds like NC and FL have been called for Trump according to NPR. I'm waiting on NV.....

by David H Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:19 am

Now I'm watching Michigan and Wisconsin for the "coin flip".... :drum:

by halfwise Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:20 am

It seems to be rural voters. I get the feeling most polls stuck to cities just because it's easier to get the numbers.

by David H Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:22 am

I think that's right. My fingers may be a little closer to the pulse on this one.

by Eldorion Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:23 am

Clinton's deficit in Michigan about 15,000 right now according to NYT. That's better than it was and still a lot of votes to come from more urban areas. Not necessarily gonna get confident over this one though

by halfwise Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:31 am

Holy Crap fivethirtyeight just switched to 58% chance Trump will win. Shocked

by halfwise Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:34 am

Changes fast and furious. Now up to 77% chance Trump wins. Shocked

by halfwise Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:40 am

Comparison made to Brexit. Polls were totally off there too.

by Forest Shepherd Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:42 am

AAAAAAAGH WHAT IS HAPPENING!!!

by halfwise Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:42 am

White evangelical turnout was highest for Trump than in history. Probably about Hillary and abortion.

by Forest Shepherd Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:44 am

I've got my radio on and am listening to NPR live-reporting as the states are predicted.

by halfwise Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:48 am

Good point from Trump strategist. Trump t-shirts said "Make America Great Again"; Clinton t-shirts said "Hillary Clinton 2016". No clear message.

by Forest Shepherd Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:50 am

That's why you make your own!

Oops, image didn't work.

Oh well, here we go:

Election Night 2016: The Passion of Cheeto Jesus - Page 5 Giant-meteor-750x403

by halfwise Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:00 am

by Forest Shepherd Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:00 am

Are you still around Eldo? I'm west coast of course so I'm going to be up for a while longer to hear more results.