US General Elections 2020

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Post by halfwise on Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:15 am

Well so far there hasn't been a new thread for this, but things just got really interesting.

Up until Friday Bernie Sanders, the resident socialist, had been clobbering the democratic favorite son Joe Biden.  Then in South Carolina Biden totally flattend Bernie via the black vote, leading Trump's kingmaker Steve Bannon to declare them "a very pragmatic people".

Suddenly Tom Steyer, the anti-Trump billionaire candidate dropped out, followed by the surprise departure of Pete Buttigieg, the first openly gay candidate to get so far in presidential politics.  This was a huge jaw drop because up to this moment he had declared himself in for the long haul.

One commentator I read I think nailed it: The democratic party leaned on him to drop out (probably promising him some party post or vice presidency), so that Biden can be the lone moderate to take on Sanders without a split vote.  Warren was left in to split the socialist vote to diminish Sanders.

Why is it so important to diminish Sander's chances?  Because Trump can easily attack him based on the strength of the economy (fueled in large part by corporate tax cuts feeding the largest national budget deficit in history).  Nobody turns to socialism during a strong economy.

Not that Bernie is really a socialist.  He's more of a social democrat: supporting capitalism but with strong guard rails and a safety net.  If he'd just put it that way he'd be much better off, but as it is he's anathema to a huge portion of the electorate.

So who else have we got left?  A tupperware lady beholden to big agriculture, and a very competent but personality challenged billionaire who favors the nanny state.  Or more clearly, a state senator from a farm state (Amy Klobuchar) who is more suited to a church social than the presidency, and Michael Bloomburg, the former Mayor of New York City who kept things humming without (totally) neglecting the little folks but supported policies that allow the police to frisk anyone at will, and wanted to limit soft drinks to 12 ounces for health reasons.  Both policies got big razzberries.

It's gonna be an interesting time.


Last edited by halfwise on Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:18 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Mrs Figg on Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:25 pm

so Boobygeeg out then. No

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Post by halfwise on Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:15 pm

fivethirtyeight.com finally put Grandpa Biden ahead of Socialist Sanders for the first time.

I still think Elisabeth Warren has the best mind of all of them, but she over-reached in her plans for the country as much as Sanders did, so lost trust.  The reason Sanders didn't lose trust is because he's been saying the same thing for decades, but she just newly came to the table following his lead.  She should have gone her own direction.

The booster-seat billionaire Bloomberg (have to credit Trevor Noah for that one) is barely on the map in recent polling.

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Post by halfwise on Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:19 am

During the campaign for the democratic nomination, Biden has handily won most states, but it looks like two of the biggest - Texas and California - will go for Sanders. But the points are doled out proportionally so it's hard to tell who will come out on top after the votes are counted. I'll have to find out in the morning.

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Post by halfwise on Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:55 am

So yesterday was Super Tuesday, where a bunch of states, including the two biggest ones, go through their nomination process. Up until a few days ago Bernie Sanders was projected to win most of them, but in fact the opposite occurred. Biden won most, including Texas. Bernie got California but overall won less votes. But national polls still show Bernie ahead. This is far from over.

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Post by malickfan on Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:13 pm

Thread bump.

So any guesses who Biden will be picking as his running mate/Vice President nominee?

And for the ignorant non-americans here, could someone explain how the US Goverment/Presidential elections work...I'm still a bit confused on the different between congressman/senator and the importance of the Electoral College?

It was my understanding that in 2016, although Trump lost the popular vote by several million votes, he won in several important swing states due to electoral college votes, does he need to win these specific states again? Are his numbers like to get better/worse in other swing states?

On another note, is it just me or is Trump looking/sounding increasingly frail and exhausted as time goes on?


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Post by halfwise on Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:13 am

Except for Biden saying he will select a woman (and possibly a black woman) the VP is still up in the air. Everyone has a different theory.

Every state has two senators (upper house) and a number of congressman proportional to the population (lower house). The number of votes each state will cast towards the president is equal to the number of senators plus congressman, so that it's not quite proportional to population, and less populated states therefore carry greater weight per capita. Since the less populous states tend to be more rural they are more conservative, hence the electoral college favors republicans.

This is complicated because most states allocate their votes by a winner take all system, so that the number of votes in the electoral college comes nowhere close to representing proportional voting.

This system came about as a compromise between election by direct vote and by the congress. The idea was that each state would pick actual electors who would travel to the capital to vote, lending both clarity and obfuscation to the process.

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Post by Orwell on Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:26 am

Ocasio-Cortez? Sharp mind and compassionate. Seems both humane and someone able to achieve things without being a pure idealist. A pragmatic idealist? And young enough to be relevant while old enough to be wise.

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Post by David H on Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:49 am

You gotta be a bit careful about picking a VP from among the sitting congress. Although the VP presides over the senate, it's kind of a symbolic job which only gets to vote in case of a tie, and you're expected to follow party lines and presidential directives in a way that congressmen don't have to. And there's really no telling who would end up filling their vacant seat in Congress. It's a real gamble.
Also, they would probably need to be 35 years old or older (that's a requirement to serve as President, which might easily come up if Biden croaks....)

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Post by halfwise on Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:23 am

Biden needs to win the centrist swing voters. AOC is no centrist - she would scare them away. He's got a tough decision what with appealing to these centrists yet to turn out his base he has to come across as not another old white guy.

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Post by Orwell on Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:36 am

Scary or not, I find AOC impressive.

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Post by halfwise on Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:08 pm

She's smart.  But she's also far left.  Go too far in either direction and people stop listening to your arguments - it becomes pure tribalism and people are either for or against you no matter how well crafted your case is.

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Post by Orwell on Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:41 am

Interesting that she supports those at the bottom of rung, as workers, and she is immediately too far Left. In Australia, she would be seen as Leftish, but not ‘too far’ Left. Admittedly, our care for the lower rungs of society, like many other Western countries, even among those who are a bit to the Right, seems a little more decent. I have been watching news on America a lot. The politics seems actually much more divisive than elsewhere. And politics in most countries is pretty divisive. I hope it is because of Trump and Trumpism as opposed to genuine conservatism.

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Post by halfwise on Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:01 am

Trump discovered a deep current most conservatives tried to push away. As has been said often, he is the symptom not the cause. But by tapping into this dark side he's been so successful that other conservatives have been following his lead. Republicans used to say they were the party of principle, but I haven't heard that in years, except for those hold-outs who still reject Trump.

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Post by Orwell on Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:29 am

halfwise wrote:Trump discovered a deep current most conservatives tried to push away.  As has been said often, he is the symptom not the cause.  But by tapping into this dark side he's been so successful that other conservatives have been following his lead.  Republicans used to say they were the party of principle, but I haven't heard that in years, except for those hold-outs who still reject Trump.

Watching American news, I am pleased by the number o for republicans deploring Trumps behaviour. It’s not about the party (as such), or its underlying (traditional?) philosophy, or its usual supporters, but Trump himself, and his cronies.

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Post by malickfan on Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:21 am


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Post by halfwise on Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:18 pm

You just see people behind him gritting his teeth when he speaks. It flies right over the head of his republican cronies, but the experts have a hard time controlling themselves.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:06 pm

{{ Surely even idiot Americans can see now Trump is a clueless snake-oil salesman. What he is saying has now gone from stupid to actively dangerous, never mind the virus his insane advice is going to kill people. }}

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Post by halfwise on Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:59 pm

You assume too much. You have to understand that people who support him actually have affection for him. You can let a lot fly by in someone you are fond of.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:49 pm

{{ Surely there comes a point when its obvious hes just an idiot? I mean now he is trying to claim he was being sarcastic about injectng disinfectent into yourself as cure- I mean come on, everyone heard what he said. }}

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Post by halfwise on Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:57 pm

People talk about Trump Derangement Syndrome without realizing it goes both ways. I know perfectly intelligent people who defended Trump's statement that his inauguration had the largest crowds ever - despite photographic evidence - by saying that he was referring to media coverage as well. And he DID say that, but only after letting Sean Spicer twist in the wind for two weeks trying to defend his original statement.

So I'm sorry to say the evidence shows you are wrong. His supporters will have quietly filed away his first statement about ingesting disinfectant, only to bring it out triumphantly saying he was joking all along, stupid media. I know these people.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:03 pm

{{ If thats the case then it points to a few things- 1. you have to hope come election there are fewer morons than sane people in the US. 2. US education must be awful. 3. The American tendenacy to be selfish and think only of one self and not others has got way worse under Trump, in which case God help you. }}

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Post by azriel on Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:03 pm

US General Elections 2020 Bang10

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Post by Pettytyrant101 on Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:44 pm

{{{ Laughing I am not sure from within America folk are quite aware of just what a joke America has become on the international stage. No one takes it seriously any more or listens to America any more. Americas word is worth nothing as any treaty or other international obligation the US signs up to Trump can dump the next day in a tweet because he saw something on Fox News. His proclamations on stuff like the virus are a recognised joke, ridiculed daily, America is just the source of comedy memes and jokes these days.
This in itself wouldnt be so bad but other, less favourable players like China are stepping into the void left by Trump at the global level.
I see today they have annoucned they will make the shortfall from Trump pulling funding from WHO. This is just the latest in a series of moves China has made of late to try to fill that power vaccum left by a disfunctional, inward America with no leadership the rest of the globe believes in any more. That shinng light on the hill is now just a massive raging fire as the House burns down.
Trumps a bad joke outside America, and slowly but surely he is making America as a whole seem like a joke country. }}

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Post by Orwell on Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:18 am

If this is war, Trump is a war criminal.

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