Re: UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

by malickfan Sat Jun 11, 2016 2:19 pm

Mrs Figg wrote:young people need to wake up and vote Remain because its you lot who are going to suffer most.
and what on earth is going to happen in Ireland? are there going to be internal borders between a European Ireland and a UK Northern Ireland, how would that work, you would need a passport, it would tear people apart.
I saw the debate in an Irish university with Blair and John Major, they were very good. It make me realise how bad the Tories have got when John Major starts looking like a nice decent chap. I remember when he was PM and the Tories were engulfed in sleaze scandals and Mad Cow desease. happy days.

Sadly I think many young people just feel disengaged or uninterested in politics, and live for the moment, rather than plan for the future.

Frankly I doubt the Leave supporters have given N.Ireland/Wales/Scotland much of a thought, it very much seems to be a campaign of Little England (LEAVE) vs The United Kingdom (REMAIN) i.m.o, though oddly it seems many of the 'Loyalist' Northern Ireland politicians back the leave vote, ignoring that N.Ireland benefits enormously from EU funding.

It's probably completely stupid to say a Brexit could restart conflict on a large scale in N.Ireland, but I'm worried even so...

by Mrs Figg Sat Jun 11, 2016 2:24 pm

dunno about Ireland but its still a fragile and sensitive peace, breaking people up rather than making them one isn't a positive message imo.

by Mrs Figg Sat Jun 11, 2016 2:27 pm

by malickfan Sat Jun 11, 2016 2:30 pm

And if we do vote to leave, that could put Boris the Bufoon on course to be next prime minister

I'm also worried that a conservative lead government will mistake a vote to leave as a signal that the public backs their policies, when most of the working class people I know who are voting to leave are doing so partly because they feel so alienated by mainstream politics and the goverment's policies on immigration and security.

If the 40-50 years olds spouting nonsense about it on TV can't give us direct answers, what are the general public supposed to think/decide?

by Eldorion Sat Jun 11, 2016 2:43 pm

There are a number of ways Brexit would affect the Northern Ireland situation but it's not out of the question for the Common Travel Area to survive. Norway and Iceland are not part of the EU but they're in the Nordic Passport Union with Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. Granted, they're also all in Schengen, but Ireland would still have their permanent opt-out from Schengen even in the event of Brexit.

There would be a lot of unknowns in the short term, though, and the Government doesn't seem interested in trying to clear up what it's intentions would be before the referendum, since reducing uncertainty would work in favor of the Leave campaign. So essentially the same playbook they ran in the Scottish referendum.

That said I don't find the Leave campaign particularly convincing.

by malickfan Sat Jun 11, 2016 2:51 pm

Eldorion wrote:

That said I don't find the Leave campaign particularly convincing.

As far as I can tell it's mostly based on fear, guesswork, shouting and blaming people with different accents.

I was on the fence myself at one point, but the economic arguments just aren't convincing, I'd only be voting Leave as a protest vote, not one based on hard judgement...

by Eldorion Sat Jun 11, 2016 3:10 pm

I was honestly leaning Leave a few months ago (not that I get a say, of course) but yeah they haven't made a strong case IMO.

On the other hand, I find some of the Stay stuff really silly. That Patrick Stewart video that credited Europe with the right to a fair trial was laughable and not in a good way. I understand the arguments in favor of the ECHR (and how it's different from the EU) but ... come on.

by Pettytyrant101 Sat Jun 11, 2016 3:40 pm

{{{Not sure it was claiming the EU created the right to a free trial, more it protects the right to a fair trial- this is technically true in the UK as we don't have a constitution written down, so any laws, including the right to a fair trial can in theory be scraped- but not so long as we remain EU members.

On a more realistic level something like a workers right not be forced to work over a certain amount of hours in a week could easily be under jeopardy in the Uk under a Tory government, but currently is protected by EU law.

Many of these sort of rights, especially the workers one, only have the EU for protection.

Now its fair to say that the UK has in fact led in much of this legislation and in the UK some of it goes even further than required by EU law- but thats no guarantee for the future- there is nothing once we leave the EU to stop the Tories dismantling the workers rights so hard fought for and won over decades- something folk like Boris have a long track history of saying they want to do.}}}

by Mrs Figg Sat Jun 11, 2016 4:32 pm

malickfan wrote:And if we do vote to leave, that could put Boris the Bufoon on course to be next prime minister

I'm also worried that a conservative lead government will mistake a vote to leave as a signal that the public backs their policies, when most of the working class people I know who are voting to leave are doing so partly because they feel so alienated by mainstream politics and the goverment's policies on immigration and security.

If the 40-50 years olds spouting nonsense about it on TV can't give us direct answers, what are the general public supposed to think/decide?

we are getting Tories whether we leave or stay so that wont change, its just a different set of Tories, and these are barking mad. Voting Leave wont get rid of them unfortunately. This is a perfect opportunity for Labour to use the Tory infighting to galvanise people, so what do they do? NOTHING. Corbyn wants sacking with immediate effect. Its a bad do when all we have is bloody Tony Blair in his best after dinner speech mode. Where's Gordon Brown when you need him.

seriously though when Major, Brown and Blair start to look like Statesmen you realise there's something rotten at the heart of the UK. The low level of garbage we have in politics today. In their day, Major and Brown were seen as B series politicians, now compared to Boris, Gove, and the rest of Daves mates, they start to look solid. I mean compare Glenda Jackson to those vapid reptiles Nicky Morgan and Esther McVile and Diane Abbott.

:facepalm:

by Eldorion Sat Jun 11, 2016 7:38 pm

Pettytyrant101 wrote:Not sure it was claiming the EU created the right to a free trial, more it protects the right to a fair trial- this is technically true in the UK as we don't have a constitution written down, so any laws, including the right to a fair trial can in theory be scraped- but not so long as we remain EU members.

The question (borrowed from Monty Python) was "what has the European Convention on Human Rights ever done for us?" The idea that there would not be a right to a fair trial in the UK without the ECHR is laughable. I'm aware of the lack of a written British constitution and how technically there are no rights to anything other than Parliament's right to sovereignty but in practice Britain has been a global pioneer when it comes to judicial independence since at least the 1700s.

Now its fair to say that the UK has in fact led in much of this legislation and in the UK some of it goes even further than required by EU law- but thats no guarantee for the future- there is nothing once we leave the EU to stop the Tories dismantling the workers rights so hard fought for and won over decades- something folk like Boris have a long track history of saying they want to do.

This, on the other hand, is a good argument in favor of the ECHR and it's one I agree with.

by malickfan Sun Jun 12, 2016 9:27 am

Recent graph of Brexit demographics (from the Financial Times i think)

UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain) - Page 5 A4TIxU6

(Obviously just over 16k isn't a massive number, and probably not very representative, some parts of the UK are more pro-EU than others, but it's interesting to think about)

by Pettytyrant101 Sun Jun 12, 2016 11:06 am

Recent graph of Brexit demographic- Malick

{{Where? scratch

}}}

by Bluebottle Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:00 pm

malickfan wrote:Recent graph of Brexit demographics (from the Financial Times i think)

(Obviously just over 16k isn't a massive number, and probably not very representative, some parts of the UK are more pro-EU than others, but it's interesting to think about)

by Eldorion Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:06 pm

I want to know more about the ~5% of UKIP supporters who oppose Brexit. Razz

by Bluebottle Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:08 pm

Hahaha, me too Very Happy

by Bluebottle Sun Jun 12, 2016 6:24 pm

UK protestors try to burn the EU flag, but can't because of EU regulation on flammable materials

https://www.facebook.com/graham.ecob/posts/10154252378054532?pnref=story

Razz

by malickfan Mon Jun 20, 2016 12:56 pm

So any predictions for the results? I initially predicted 45/55(ish) in favour of remain, but I think it's going to be a very, very close thing, I haven't seen a single poster/campaigner/leaflet in favour of Remain, but loads for Leave...although I live in a very middle class, white, right-wing leaning area virtually everyone I know who is voting Leave is doing so almost entirely based on some vague argument about immigrants...

...Honestly, the more I read about this, the more worried/bemused/confused I get, I never asked for this referendum and I'm rather doubtful that many of the general public are well enough informed about such a huge decision.

Neutral

http://www.voanews.com/content/europeans-vote-on-eu/3321446.html

by Mrs Figg Mon Jun 20, 2016 3:32 pm

I cant even bear to think about Leave winning.

by Bluebottle Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:32 pm

I'm still astounded anyone bar the far right of british conservativism are even entertaining this idea.

by Eldorion Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:00 am

Bluebottle wrote:I'm still astounded anyone bar the far right of british conservativism are even entertaining this idea.

Uh, hardcore leftists hate the EU almost as much as the far right do. This was in the news a lot a year or two ago due to Syriza and Podemos. And even in Britain there are still some Bennites left.

That said, I don't think it's any great mystery why so many people are sympathetic to the nationalist/populist argument against the EU. Most people don't strongly identify as European, don't really give a shit about the European Parliament, don't feel inclined to all pull together with the rest of the continent in times of crisis (recent events have proven this is a pretty endemic attitude throughout the EU, not just in Britain), and, when given a choice about something that has hitherto been driven by elites for wonkish reasons, would really rather prefer things to be simpler and more localized, even if that's not actually a realistic outcome.

Well, that, plus a lot of people hate and fear immigrants. Neutral

by Mrs Figg Tue Jun 21, 2016 6:59 am

yep we still have an Island mentality for better or worse. I don't think we will ever feel fully European. Isolation is part of our history and there's only so far we will put our toes into the water. People on small islands feel like this. People living on big continents cant understand it. Island life is a deep feeling you cant shake off. quite odd really when you try to analyse it logically. its NOT racism that's for sure.

by Eldorion Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:51 pm

I'm sure the island mentality is part of it, but I think the response to the Eurozone and migrant crises have revealed a distinct lack of pan-European empathy or identification on the Continent as well. The idea of the nation-state is hanging on better than a lot of people thought and/or wanted. Not that the EU does away with nation-states entirely or anything, but it is meaningfully different than most international organizations.

by halfwise Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:33 pm

So if you are so against Great Britain leaving the EU, how do you feel about Norway joining the EU?

Bluebottle wrote:I'm still astounded anyone bar the far right of british conservativism are even entertaining this idea.

by Mrs Figg Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:04 pm

Eldorion wrote:I'm sure the island mentality is part of it, but I think the response to the Eurozone and migrant crises have revealed a distinct lack of pan-European empathy or identification on the Continent as well. The idea of the nation-state is hanging on better than a lot of people thought and/or wanted. Not that the EU does away with nation-states entirely or anything, but it is meaningfully different than most international organizations.

well at least we don't do a Hungary and start shooting at migrants or putting up razor wire fences, so there's quite some differences of approach in so called full on European states.

by Eldorion Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:36 pm

The success of hard-right parties in Poland and especially Hungary is definitely another reason to worry about the future of the EU.

The fact that there are major differences in political culture between different countries is kind of my point, though. A lot of people from across the EU and all over the political spectrum are not fans of the neoliberal consensus that the EU was built on. What they want to replace it with varies, though many people prefer a more nationally-oriented approach. Obviously this takes different forms depending on the nation in question. Some parties aren't big fans of liberal democracy or civil rights either, which is more worrying, though that's more consigned to the fringe in Britain than in some other countries, as you mention.