We're all doomed! Doomed I say- the Corona virus thread for panicking in!

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Mon Jun 21, 2021 10:33 am

{{ Hope its enough Figg. Can add the local grammar school to the listof places that have had to close back down following an outbreak. And this wekeend, for reasons I dont understand the annual rally is going ahead and our hotel is fully booked with folk coming from all over. Not looking forward to it I have to say. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:47 am

{{ The speed of increase of the delta variant is stunning and horrfying. Weve gone from 2 in 100,000 just over a month ago to the latest figures for my town of 208.7! Its jumped by a hundred in just over a week. }}

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Post by halfwise Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:04 pm

It may actually change politics in this country: fewer republicans are vaccinated.

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Post by halfwise Mon Jun 21, 2021 1:58 pm

Delta variant is 31% of cases in this country already, up from 4% 11 days ago.  It will probably go through like a storm in the next couple of weeks.

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Post by halfwise Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:08 pm

Ah, crap.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/israel-faces-virus-surge-vaccinated-082159043.html

Over 55 per cent of Israel’s 9.3 million citizens have received two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.

Nearly a third of the new cases in the past week have been vaccinated individuals, and many of the new infections are with the delta variant.

Health ministry director-general Hezi Levi told Israel's Channel 12 on Monday that most of the new cases among vaccinated persons are mild, but called on parents to vaccinate their teenage children.

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Post by David H Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:53 pm

No surprise really. Just like in farming there's no magic pesticide. Nature adapts. That's just what She does. "cases among vaccinated persons are mild" is still a big step forward, but I predict more chapters to this story.

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Post by Mrs Figg Tue Jun 22, 2021 5:00 pm

its the kids who are spreading it, until they are all vaccinated this is never going to stop.
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Post by Lancebloke Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:59 am

It is never going to stop anyway, the same as the flu hasn't.

After we get the majority vaccinated we just need to go back to normality.
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Post by halfwise Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:36 pm

And keep getting vaccinated. I haven't had a flu shot in decades because it doesn't scare me and I never seem to get it. But this scares me.

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Post by Lancebloke Wed Jun 23, 2021 3:26 pm

The flu should scare you too if this does! It causes the same problems, just we have been exposed to it for far longer and so have better natural defences.

If we are ever going to get over this as a species then it needs to be something our bodies are generally coded to resist. We can't do that by hiding from it.

Just look at recent predictions that we expect to be hit by normal respiratory viruses this winter and potentially with newborns whose mother's haven't been exposed and passed on antibody protection.

I feel like we are storing up a massive problem by keeping ourselves in this position.
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Post by David H Wed Jun 23, 2021 3:43 pm

halfwise wrote:And keep getting vaccinated.  I haven't had a flu shot in decades because it doesn't scare me and I never seem to get it.  But this scares me.
Yeah, but it's complicated. After outright fear, the best argument for everyone getting jabs and boosters is looking after the good of everybody. That's how measles, chickenpox, smallpox etc have been made to nearly disappear.
On the other hand, the most common argument for not getting the jab is that you're not scared of the disease and besides you probably won't get it anyway. I remember you cited unvaccinated healthcare workers who said pretty much the same about Covid as you're saying about flu.
I think most of us have both of these voices in our heads at the same time, and that may be why we always seem to stall at about 50% without a serious public health push.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Wed Jun 23, 2021 4:40 pm

{{ This is worse than flu, at least at this point in time. Ive seen flu go round a care home and it can be devatating, but nothing like covid has been. And in thrity years of care work I never saw a single care worker hospitilised or killed by flu, sadly it has happened with covid. }}

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Post by Lancebloke Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:05 pm

Petty - yes, at this point it is certainly worse than flu but that is because humans have dealt with flu for a very long time. We have dealt with these kinds of coronaviruses for a very short time and in limited doses (SARS, MERS and this mainly).

So I agree that we should do what we can now with vaccines etc, but we will have to get going again very soon as these lockdowns have already created a huge backlog of problems to deal with and I think carrying on is only going to make things exponentially worse. 

This should be the last lockdown we have, once this is done this should be it with the only exception of a variant that has a high mortality rate and is just as virulent.
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Post by David H Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:34 pm

Lancebloke wrote: that is because humans have dealt with flu for a very long time. We have dealt with these kinds of coronaviruses for a very short time and in limited doses (SARS, MERS and this mainly).

Yep. Nothing new really. My grandma and her sister lived through the 1918 flu. I grew up hearing stories of them as teenagers packing kettles of soup up the stairs of an old armory that had been converted into a "hospital" to feed the sick, and watching the bodies go out daily. No vaccinations then, but somehow both of them survived.

I know a retired dairyman who swears he's immune to Covid infections because of his lifetime exposure to bovine coronavirus from working with cows, like the cowpox used to give some immunity to smallpox. I wouldn't say he's wrong. It makes sense that living in and around a wide variety of animals might give a person's immune system more tools to fight with if/when a bug eventually does cross over. Maybe? Shrugging

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Post by Lancebloke Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:43 pm

David - Possibly. But you just gave me the thought of an accidentally ingested virus in a human body not lnow what to do with itself but then getting smashed by an immune response.

I am not sure how much that kind of thing happens all the time, an unexpected visitor getting the treatment even though it wouldn't have done anything. Do they survive that long?
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Post by Mrs Figg Wed Jun 23, 2021 6:57 pm

I think the herd immunity argument is redundant with covid, its NOT flu, its not a bad cold, its a killer and you play Russian Roulette with it at your peril. The only way to live with it is to eradicate it or protect everyone with the vaccine like with Smallpox. They made everyone have the jab and now no Smallpox, this should be exactly the same procedure. It will be impossible to eradicate covid variants may come back every year but everyone needs a booster jab in that case. The herd immunity theory has been thoroughly tried out in Sweden and now they are in deep trouble. It does not work.
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Post by Lancebloke Wed Jun 23, 2021 9:39 pm

The herd immunity thing had not been thoroughly tried anywhere. Sweden weren't particularly tough on restrictions and they paid the price, as you would expect with a new disease. They were nowhere near herd immunity at any point. 

Herd immunity is the answer but it requires the vaccine to help it along so we don't need the problem of hospitalisation and death. Either way, once the vaccines are done, if there is another big surge I don't think we can afford another lockdown situation. We will just need to get on with it.
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Post by Mrs Figg Wed Jun 23, 2021 9:55 pm

If we just get on with it, it will run out of control again. The new Delta plus variant is so infectious you only have to walk near someone without a mask to catch it. They need to at least keep the mask and social distancing laws indoors, and vaccinate all kids. Then they might be able to avoid another terrible Winter by avoiding the flu season again. They saw that masks work for flu, lowest rates on record, they should encourage people to continue the good work. Asians wear masks we should get used to it too. its just common sense.
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Post by Pettytyrant101 Wed Jun 23, 2021 10:08 pm

{{ I think the marker for lockdowns is hospitalizations and deaths. The NHS cant go on as it is delaying other procedures and surgery because its overwhelmed with covid cases. If a new variant sees a sizeable increase in folk needing hopsital treatment then we'd have to go into lockdown again just to stop the sytem collapsing.
But whilst cases are rising but hospitalizations and deaths are not rising significianlty (obvously its very significant if it youre one of those people) then I think we can avoid lockdowns (though I think there is a case for smaller localised lockdowns in hotspots of cases).
But Im with Figg on continuing to mandate for mask wearing on public transport and in shops and to continue to drive home the social distancing around strangers and hand washing messages. Wearing a mask in certain locations is hardly a great hardship afterall. }}

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Post by David H Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:17 pm

Lancebloke wrote:David - Possibly. But you just gave me the thought of an accidentally ingested virus in a human body not lnow what to do with itself but then getting smashed by an immune response.

I am not sure how much that kind of thing happens all the time, an unexpected visitor getting the treatment even though it wouldn't have done anything. Do they survive that long?

Yeah, that happens all the time from all kinds of animals, and they can get things from us too. Remember bird flu?
The word vaccine literally just means "cow".
Merriam-Webster wrote:
As the 18th century was winding to a close, an English physician named Edward Jenner set about to determine whether there was any truth to an urban legend of his day: milkmaids who got cowpox (a disease that causes ulcers on cows' teats and can be spread to humans at the site of a scratch or abrasion) didn't get smallpox. This was a big deal, because a case of cowpox would typically leave a person with a self-contained and localized ulcer or two, usually on a hand, while a case of smallpox would likely cause disfiguring scars at best and full-on death at worst.

In a process that likely would not get FDA approval today, Jenner inoculated an eight-year-old boy (one James Phipps) with material taken from a milkmaid's cowpox sores. (We warned you.) After the boy contracted and recovered from cowpox, Jenner went on to inoculate him with smallpox. The boy was, to our great relief, immune, and did not contract the disease. Jenner repeated this process with 22 more lucky folks and published his documentation of it all in 1798, in a slender volume called An Inquiry into the Causes and Effects of the Variolae Vaccinae, using the Latin term that charmingly translates as "cow pustules."

Due to, we must assume, the significant deficit variolae ("pustules") scored on the lexical charm scales, vaccinae ("cow") had the lasting lexical effect. From Jenner's book title came the use of the terms vaccine matter and vaccine virus for the cowpox inoculum (the virus-containing material used in inoculations), and vaccinations as a name for the inoculation procedure. French authors writing about Jenner’s work soon after his book's publication used the word vaccine alone as a term for cowpox, and vaccin (a masculine derivative of vaccine) as a term for the cowpox inoculum. Vaccine quickly came to be applied in English to the cowpox inoculum, and then broadened semantically to cover other kinds of inocula as well.

Because of Jenner's work, the horrific scourge that was smallpox was eventually eradicated. It goes to show that science doesn’t have to be pretty to be pretty awesome, and neither does etymology.

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Post by halfwise Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:28 pm

That seems a little colloquial for Merriam-Webster. Suspect

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Post by David H Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:43 pm

halfwise wrote:That seems a little colloquial for Merriam-Webster. Suspect

https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/vaccine-the-words-history-aint-pretty

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Post by halfwise Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:55 pm

Oh, that's right. Now they show ads, so it's all about clicks. Not our childhood reference book anymore.

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Post by Lancebloke Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:18 am

You can't just catch the delta variant by walking close to somebody, especially if outdoors.

And the masks didn't work on the flu, lockdown did. But now we have a lot of people who haven't had flu for 2 years and when they get it next, it is likely to be worse. This could also be the case for newborns as I mentioned earlier.

We have enormous pressure on the NHS to pick up other things including people that have been putting off check ups for far more dangerous diseases than covid. Poor Gunther from Friends has stage 4 cancer but had to put off check ups because of covid. I wonder how many of those there are. We risk the system collapsing because of covid? Has it not possibly done that already, you just can't see it because people die of leukemia more slowly.

We have a generation of unsolcialised kids who have missed out on 12-18 months of key development plus all those others that have missed out on key education. 

We have industries on their knees and massive government debt that will have to be paid back by future generations.

We have a potential mental health crisis going on that we probably won't see the extent of quickly.

Doesn't anyone else see all of that as a worse problem? We cannot keep locking down. If vaccines don't work then we have to get on with life, the same as humans have done throughout their entire history. We are lucky to have the benefit of vaccines now, most didn't.
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Post by Pettytyrant101 Thu Jun 24, 2021 9:17 am

{{ Masks help, against covid and flu. Last I checked the numbers was about 30% protection if you are wearing one, and if others you encounter are too that goes as high as 70%. They are the simplest least intrusive defence against this type of virus and at this point I see no reason why the wearing of masks should not continue.

I wouldnt wory too much about kids missing a bit of time, they might not have been in school but it hasnt stopped socialising among them, certainly not round my way where all thats happened from a kids perspective is a great big holiday and theyve been out playing in the gardens, or on the beach or up the hills together as kids will. And an entire generation missed years of schooling during the two world wars and they did ok. Hell I missed just over a year of schooling as a kid simply because of industrial action and teachers being on strike. Kids are resiliant.

Problem with just saying if vaccines dont work we have to just get on with it is that the NHS, which you say needs to get on with other things, wont be able to do so as once again it will be full of covid patients, intensive care will be overwhelmed again, supplies of crucial equipment and medicines strecthed and money taken from other budgets to pay for it. One of the primary aims of having lockdowns was to prevent the NHS being completely overwhelmed in cases.

Debt is another thing I dont think matters in the slightest, rack it up may as well be monopoloy money for all the difference it makes. When Obama was in power he racked up US debt to 11.9 TRILLION, and every president since has just added even more debt so that currently it stands at 28 trillion. Has US infrastructure and economy collapsed as a result of those ludicrous figures of debt? It hasnt made the slightest difference. In fact the US government is currently proposing spending a further 2 trillion on upgrading and improving its existing infrastucture. Its just games governments play, it means absolutely nothing in reality.

Im not too worried about big industry either. If they go to the wall thats harsh for those running them and those who work for them. But when things do eventually resolve there will be new businesses and companies who will step in to replace them for so long as there is still demand for what is being sold. Post WW2 a mass of companies had gone out of business, some literally bombed out of existence but many, many more driven out by the economic circumstances. We had rationing until 1954. Those businesses, big and small that the war destroyed were gone, but new ones eventually replaced them eventually giving us a massive post-war boom period. Same will happen again.

And we've always had a mental health crisis, probably throughout human history, we just usually fail to recognise it. I dont think the mental anxiety of this is any worse than during previous pandemics or wars. }}

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Pettytyrant101
Pettytyrant101
Crabbitmeister

Posts : 44515
Join date : 2011-02-14
Age : 49
Location : Scotshobbitland

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