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Post by Pettytyrant101 Fri May 07, 2021 7:09 pm

{{ Halfy- its just a numbers game- its incedibly hard with two different means of voting counting to get an outright win in both methods as the better you do on the consituency vote the harder your punished on the list votes.

'In order to “balance out” the election of MSPs and essentially prevent a “super majority” for one party, the regional vote is used to give a form of proportional representation.
For the regional vote, Scotland is divided into eight regions, and each region elects 7 list MSPs (a total of 56 regional MSPs).
A candidate can stand both on the constituency and on the list. If they are elected for the constituency, then they are eliminated from the list so that they cannot be “elected” twice.
In order to balance out the votes and give smaller parties a chance, the arithmetic does not favour the parties who have candidates elected to constituency seats. The total votes received by a party on the regional list is divided by the number of candidates elected for the party at a constituency level (plus one).
This reduces the effective votes the party has at the regional level.'- Edinburgh Reporter

Or in plainer language, its rigged to try to prevent the SNP ever getting a majority. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Fri May 07, 2021 7:24 pm

{{ Labour hold Edinburgh south depsite the SNP increasing their vote share by 4%. Looks like some more tactical voting too as Labour vote share was up by almost the exact amount the Tory vote was down- looks like Unionist Tory voters shifted to Labour to ensure they held the seat from the SNP. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Fri May 07, 2021 7:41 pm

{{ Current stats-

With 43 seats declared, the SNP have 36 MSPs, the Lib Dems four and the Conservatives two, Labour one.

Think that shows the gulf so far between the SNP and everyone else. If things keep going as they are they will be close to that all but impossible majority, and even if they fall short of it its still a clear landslide. Also starkly highlights that Scottish Labour are good as dead. Only place they are picking up any vote share is where Tory voters have switched to them as best bet to stop SNP. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Fri May 07, 2021 7:45 pm

{{Tories have held onto Eastwood, again looks like tactical voting- the Tory vote share was up, but so was the SNP- its at Labours expense the Tories held on- Labour are down a whopping 15% about same as Tories were up. Tories will be pleased with that as SNP have already added 3 seats, this one makes an outright majority that bit less likely, though still going to be close.}}

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Post by halfwise Fri May 07, 2021 8:24 pm

Pettytyrant101 wrote:
For the regional vote, Scotland is divided into eight regions, and each region elects 7 list MSPs (a total of 56 regional MSPs).
A candidate can stand both on the constituency and on the list. If they are elected for the constituency, then they are eliminated from the list so that they cannot be “elected” twice.
In order to balance out the votes and give smaller parties a chance, the arithmetic does not favour the parties who have candidates elected to constituency seats. The total votes received by a party on the regional list is divided by the number of candidates elected for the party at a constituency level (plus one).
This reduces the effective votes the party has at the regional level.

I don't quite understand the second half of that, but I gather the first vote is done the normal way, which will favor the majority and provides regional representation. Then they are eliminated so the second vote is for the left over non-majority and thus reduces the effects of regional power blocks. That's actually a clever system to eliminate tyranny of the majority, but nobody would come up with something so convoluted unless backed into a corner.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Fri May 07, 2021 8:27 pm

{ They came up with it to stop a SNP majority. Thats not speculation, or some uncovered plot, its the open publicly stated reason for the voting system being as it is. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Fri May 07, 2021 8:38 pm

{{ Labour have held onto Dumbarton which was one of the SNP target seats. Not much in it and the Tory vote was up 6% and the Labour vote down exactly 6% so again looks like tactical voting from unionists switching parties. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Fri May 07, 2021 9:22 pm

{{ Not sure where the political analyst from the BBC got this idea from -   'Ms Sturgeon is now looking to be in a weaker position with her party.' The Tory party I assume!

She is on the verge of leading her party to a 4th consecutive, decisive victory. From a starting position of only having a handful of seats left they didnt have, so slim pickings to increase the total, yet she has so far still somehow managed to increase their vote by a further 3 seats.
Her approval ratings are miles above any other UK leader too. So how on earth her winning an election with a landslide makes her weaker is beyond me.
I don't see the BBC claiming that the Tories victories in English councils somehow makes Boris weaker- its a ridiculous statement from the BBC. }}

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Post by halfwise Fri May 07, 2021 10:04 pm

You know you can game the system. Have members of the SNP form a shadow party that's basically the same under another name. That way some SNP will get the first vote, and by default members of the unelected wing get the second vote. Then they form a coalition government. If whoever formed the present voting system was cheeky enough to say outright it's to prevent the SNP from being the majority, this new party can be cheeky enough to say it's being created to fill in the slots denied the SNP. Only has to pull it off for one election, then get done what needs to get done while the other parties squawk but can't do anything.

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Fri May 07, 2021 11:54 pm

{{ Thats pretty much what ex SNP leader Salmond has done in forming the Alba party. None of his party are standing on the first vote only on the list. So in theory if enough voted Alba on the list youd have two strong independence parties- but as Alba seem to polling about the 2% mark thats seems unlikely- Salmond is no longer a popular figure.
More likely, as the Greens have been solid no nonsense backing on the indie question throughout last parliament those who dont want SNP on the 2nd ballot but are pro-indie will more likely go Green.

Final tally end of day one of vote counting-

48 seats declared, the SNP have 39 MSPs, the Lib Dems four, the Conservatives three and Labour has two.

Or to look at it another way 39 to independence and 9 for all the unionists added together. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sat May 08, 2021 12:16 am

{{ The BBC coverage from the main London studio has been, interesting. They described the Tories as having been in power for 4 years and increasing their vote as so unusual for a serving government that they labelled it "gravity defying" yet they are reporting the SNP taking nearly all the seats on the first day of voting and increasing their share of the vote after 15 years in power as a disappointment that will lead to trouble forSturgeon in her party! Now there's a journalistic double-standard for you. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sat May 08, 2021 12:27 am

{{ Results as it currently stands. List results will start coming in tomorrow which is when Tories, Labour, Lib dems and Greens will all get most of their seats from (almost half the seats allocated are from the list). }}

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Post by Mrs Figg Sat May 08, 2021 2:17 pm

Its funny how there is a swathe of Tories on the border.
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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sat May 08, 2021 4:16 pm

{{ Their last line of defence as we rout them from the country! Actually its more than its just the border area, thats also an area of huge farm estates and rich Tory landowners down there in the Lowlands. They've always been Tory.}}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sat May 08, 2021 4:27 pm

{{Current standing- SNP 53, Lib Dems 4, Conservatives 3, Labour 2 }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sat May 08, 2021 4:31 pm

{{ The Tories have held onto Aberdenshire West, this means the SNP wont get an overall majority (again to remind the parliament is set up to do all it can to stop that happening) but they could end up on 64 seats- only 1 short of an outright majority and still a clear landslide win for them, especially after 15 years in power. It also means the Greens only need to pick up 1 seat now for there to be a pro-indie majority in the Parliament. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sat May 08, 2021 4:58 pm

{{ BBC projections for the result- SNP 63 Con 31 Labour 22 Green 9 Lib Dem 4.

Thats not far off my own projection made before the election -

'SNP will win but will fall short by a few seats of gaining an overall majority.
Tories will hold their numbers or possibly gain a few.
Greens will will lose a seat.
Labour will pick up a seat or two but still fall well short.
Salmonds Alba party might at best pick up a single seat, but I reckon they wont get any.

So SNP- win around 60-62 seats (projection from BBC is 63)
Tories in 2nd with 30-32 seats (projection 31)
Labour 3rd but well behind the Tories on 22-25 seats. (projection 22)
Greens in a distant 4th with 4-6 seats. (projection 9)
Lib-dems alongside them with 5-7 seats. (projection 4)
Alba last with 1 or 0 seats. (projection 0)

So not bad overall, only really got the Green vote wrong as they have done a bit better than I predicted and the Lib Dems a little worse than I predicted. Still closer than the 'pundits' had it going into this election. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sat May 08, 2021 5:02 pm

{{ New record set- the SNP have gained the largest vote share in any Scottish election. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sat May 08, 2021 5:36 pm

{{ Good example of the issues with the list system- The SNP got the highest votes in Central Scotland, but didnt get anyone elected on the list as they have so many seats on the constuency vote- so Greens, Tories and Labour all got list seats form this one result, the SNP didnt get any even though they got the most votes on that list vote (as the list vote is divided by consituency seats) }}


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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sat May 08, 2021 5:44 pm

{{ Just to further highlight the list issue- heres the results from the Central Scotland list vote-

SNP 148,399
Labour 77,623
Conservative 59,896
Green 19,512
Lib Dem 6,337

But the SNP didnt win a single seat from this, Tories, Labour, Green all did. The SNP got 46% of the total vote and not a single seat. }}

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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sat May 08, 2021 6:38 pm

{{ Still some list votes to come in, but all the constituency votes are counted giving us our final tally for the first past the post vote-

SNP 62 (+3)
Conservative 5 (-2)
Liberal Democrat 4 (0)
Labour 2 (-1)
Green 0
Others 0

No matter how you cut this the SNP humped the opposition on this vote, combined the 3 Unionist parties managed 11 seats against the SNP on their own getting 62. }}

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Post by Mrs Figg Sat May 08, 2021 7:41 pm

So in a nutshell do the SNP have the necessary majority to take forward Indyref2?
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Post by Mrs Figg Sat May 08, 2021 7:42 pm

Glad to see The King of the North Andy Burnham was re-elected. Razz
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Post by Pettytyrant101 Sat May 08, 2021 7:49 pm

So in a nutshell do the SNP have the necessary majority to take forward Indyref2?- Figg

{{ On their own no, they are 2 short of an outright majority. However the Greens on 9 would give the parliament a stronger pro-indie voice than the last Parliament had as both SNP and Greens have increased their vote. So there is an indie majority so the SNP can pass the legislation to ask Westminster to grant a referendum (Section 30 Order) Boris says he will say no to that and refuse it- at the point he does that he changes the make up of the UK however, as to now the UK has been held together by consent, denying the referendum would mean we were being held together purely by Westminister law no longer by consent. And that pointit would go tot he Supreme Court, but even if the Court gives the go ahead Boris could block it still depending how far he is willing to go, as he has a majority in Westminister so could just pass legislation making it impossivble for devoloved nations to call a referendum. Then it would get interesting.
And if the Court sides with Westminister then that formalises the UK being held together by only law not consent. And that will change the mood.

Turnout incidentally was higher for this election in Scotland than for the last three General Elections. With average turnout in the 70 plus % range. }}

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FREEDOM!!!! [4] - Page 39 Empty Re: FREEDOM!!!! [4]

Post by Pettytyrant101 Sat May 08, 2021 8:10 pm

{{ Another good example of the list vote, MidScotland and Fife-

SNP 136,825
Con 85,909
Lab 52,626
Greens 28,654

But the result of seat allocation? 4 to the Tories, 2 to labour and 1 to the Greens. The SNP didnt get a single seat out of this! }}

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Pettytyrant101
Pettytyrant101
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