US General Elections 2020

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Post by halfwise Fri Nov 01, 2024 11:24 am

Figgsy - I thought as a far right thug you'd be looking forward to Trump being elected.

Lance - I can only hope that the election guardrails that have been put in place since 2020 will be sufficient to withstand the even more concerted attempts to overthrow elections that don't go the desired way. No idea what's actually gonna happen. I can't imagine it's gonna be pretty. America's been a third world country for a long time, we just didn't realize it until January 6, 2021.

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Post by Mrs Figg Fri Nov 01, 2024 1:38 pm

If you elect the Dems it will literally be a third world country. And you will have to lock up your daughters and hide your pets. Laughing  

Take the word of a far right thug. Nod
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Post by Mrs Figg Fri Nov 01, 2024 2:53 pm

The Lion of London Bridge.

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Post by Lancebloke Fri Nov 01, 2024 4:57 pm

The only good news is that I think this will be the last attempt from our orange, pussy grabbing friend. Either he gets in and stays or he doesn't and won't try again.
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Post by halfwise Mon Nov 04, 2024 8:38 pm

Okay, it's time to make some serious predictions.  We won't try to predict the Electoral College, which is a fossilized wildcard, but the popular vote.  You need to not only state your percentages, but your reasoning.  I'll go first.

I'll round numbers off to make it easier: undecided 4%;  Jill Stein, 2%  If we do an even split of the rest between Harris and Trump, that's 47% each (I should probably weight towards Trump, but since Michael Moore is sure he'll lose and has been right the last two times, but the polls say Trump is ahead, I'll cancel the two out.)

This brings us to how the undecided will vote.  I'm trying desperately to remember who said it, but it made sense: "If you are currently undecided you will either vote for Harris or stay home." (Chris Christie??)  Why?  Because it's nearly impossible to be undecided about Trump; but Harris is another matter.  So they don't like Trump, but aren't sure they like Harris.  So let's say half of the undecided will go for Harris.  50% is the halfway between yes and no, so that's where the undecided must be. So 2% go for Harris, 2% go for Stein, 2% say home, oops now I have to re-weight to get 98% out of 49% + 47%. Multiply each by 98/96.

Final Prediction: Harris 50.02%, Trump 47.98%; call it 50% and 48%.   Stein 2%

Will this be enough for Harris to win the Electoral College?  I'd rather work out some quantum mechanics problems - it makes my brain hurt less.

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Post by Lancebloke Mon Nov 04, 2024 9:51 pm

I am going 51% Harris, 47% Trump, 2% independent.

Looks like the mail-in votes have been streaming in and those tend to lean blue. I also think there will be an element of the red base that just won't vote (they don't like Trump but can't bring themselves to vote elsewhere) where the blue base seems a little more energised.

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Post by halfwise Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:11 pm

Actually the mail in votes have been leaning far more red than before, since suddenly Trump seems to think they are okay. It's gonna be a helluva ride tomorrow night.

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Post by Lancebloke Tue Nov 05, 2024 1:08 pm

USA
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Post by chris63 Tue Nov 05, 2024 1:13 pm

Who won?
Don't watch the news. Didn't even know there was an election. Is that bothering idiot Biden still
in charge?
Hope Trump wins.
Don't really care to be honest 🤣

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Post by Mrs Figg Tue Nov 05, 2024 3:59 pm

I hope Trump wins too. Cool
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Post by Lancebloke Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:12 pm

That's cause you a far right thug!
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Post by halfwise Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:26 pm

Chris - you are on the wrong side of the date line. Election results will come in tonight. No sense in even looking at them until 8 or 9 pm US east coast time.

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Post by Mrs Figg Tue Nov 05, 2024 10:27 pm

Lancebloke wrote:That's cause you a far right thug!

I sure am. Nod
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Post by halfwise Wed Nov 06, 2024 2:05 am

Tuned in at 9 pm, only half as drunk as I need to be.

So far Trump is ahead, but the democrat states have the larger cities which tend to report later. It will be a long rough night.

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Post by halfwise Wed Nov 06, 2024 2:27 am

So far out of the swing states harris got Michigan and Pennsylvania. Lost Georgia North Carolina and Wisconsin. I think it's slipping away from her.

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Post by chris63 Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:26 am

Go Trump.
Got to be honest I haven't heard anybody here in Australia talk about it. Not at work or at the pub or anywhere.

Which one's labour?
I don't know what republic or the other one is. Don't even know what the other party's called. Confederates I think.
Hate politics. Bunch of liar's and blood suckers.

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Post by malickfan Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:56 am

So I think at this point in time we can safely say Trump will win the election both the electoral college (which I thought was possible) and the popular vote (that one surprised me).

Harris was not popular at all when she ran in 2020 and has been basically invisible as Vice President she had mere months to campaign and was saddled with Bidens baggage so she was facing an uphill struggle from the start, the democrats lost the argument on the economy and i think people just voted with their wallets, looking back to how the economy and inflation was under Trump (not that I think the current economic difficulties are really the Bidens administrations fault) and hoping he somehow brings that back (his plans for huge tarrifs on imported goods, and mass deportations suggest otherwise imo).  
                               
As I understand it if Trump does win the Republicans will likely control all three branches of government, some of the Supreme court judges are likely to retire in the next few years and Trump will be able to appoint their sucessors, and get free reign to reshape the government how he likes, I'm guessing he'll pardon himself of the federal charges.
Assuming the Project 2025 reports were accurate I think gay marriage being overturned and a complete national ban on abortion may happen. Also think it's likely all aid to Ukraine will stop and Trump may possibly remove the US from NATO. Then again he is old and very clearly in declining health so I think this will really be a president Vance term, either way the Democrsts are going to have to do some serious recalibration if they want to regain the working class male vote...though judging by Trumps plans I rather have my doubts the 2028election will be a fair one. With the re-election of Trump (a convicted felon, habitable liar and known sex offender with billions of personal debt) and a surging far right Christian movement in the US it really doesn't feel like the country we knew even ten years ago, things are going to change and I'm not sure it bodes very well for minority rights, Americas econony or its standing in the world.

I think Biden would have also lost

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Post by Mrs Figg Wed Nov 06, 2024 11:36 am

Basketball cheers finally someone with balls in the White House!
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Post by halfwise Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:08 pm

At least it was a quick defeat.

I think you are right on target with most of what you said, Malick. The only thing I'd argue with is the national abortion ban - Trump is enough of a politician to see the country is not with him on that. In fact he's not "with" anything, just doing whatever he feels will gain him support, which is the point of democracy in any case.

I'm not happy with it, and I feel for Ukraine most of all. They've put up too good a fight to go under like probably will happen.

I'm surprised it went as decisively as it did but NYC is an echo chamber when it comes to politics, so except for my Trump supporting friends in Pennsylvania I didn't see the full scale of his support.

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Post by malickfan Wed Nov 06, 2024 3:19 pm

Mrs Figg wrote:Basketball  cheers  finally someone with balls in the White House!

Hmm, Trump is clearly in declining health with mashed potatoes for brains, I doubt he'll see out his term...Vance will likely have much of the power and be guiding day to day policy as much as Trump i.m.o, Trump promised a lot in 2016 but achieved very little of his goals (did Mexico ever pay for that wall?) and I get the impression he is more focussed on making money and staying out of prison than actually doing the job, on the other hand his cabinet this time will likely be the 'true believers' and yes men (and judging by the reports about Robert Kennedy, antivaxxers) and he'll have the full backing of the government behind him. The question is whether he will be as lazy this time around or feel emboldened knowing he is apparently above the law, he seems to have gained a huge amount of the young male vote this time so I guess Vance was an inspired pick (even with his personal religious views), I certainly expect him/Vance to well, put their balls first and gut abortion/women's rights.

I certainly expect him to make some unusual/extreme policy decisions but it remains to be seen whether they will actually benefit the average American, the reports earlier in the year that he was planning tax cuts for the rich, massive tariffs on imports, deporting millions of immigrants and gutting the federal government don't suggest to me the economic situation will improve for the better immediately. Then again, I think Trump has now won twice because the average working class American (particularly young males) feels left behind by the status quo and neglected by mainstream politicians (I can definitely see parallels with the rise of Reform in the UK) so perhaps people just want dramatic change no matter how bad it may hurt.

I'll fully admit I've never personally been a fan of Trump as a person (not personally a fan of guys who rape their wives or brag about sexually assaulting women, but that's just me) nor most of the GOP's policies so I am biased (then again I thought Harris was a shit candidate campaigning on the wrong issues so I'm not too shocked by the results), but surely as an fellow European you can see how an increasingly isolated/right wing America will be bad for our own economy and political balance.

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Post by malickfan Wed Nov 06, 2024 3:39 pm

halfwise wrote:At least it was a quick defeat.

I think you are right on target with most of what you said, Malick.  The only thing I'd argue with is the national abortion ban - Trump is enough of a politician to see the country is not with him on that.  In fact he's not "with" anything, just doing whatever he feels will gain him support, which is the point of democracy in any case.

I'm not happy with it, and I feel for Ukraine most of all.  They've put up too good a fight to go under like probably will happen.

I'm surprised it went as decisively as it did but NYC is an echo chamber when it comes to politics, so except for my Trump supporting friends in Pennsylvania I didn't see the full scale of his support.

I'm not all that convinced Trump will last out his term, Vance certainly seems likely to consider a nationwide abortion ban and I think the Supreme court will go with him n that one.

I'm not particularly happy with it, not only because I disagree with most of Trump's political views, but I also feel its rather sad and strange most American's seem ok with a senile sex offender and convicted felon representing them on the world stage on the off chance their petrol and eggs become slightly cheaper in the future. That's not to say I'm calling all Trump voters/supporters idiots-I can see why people voted for his policies and at least he was making points (however vague and contradictory) about addressing the economy/immigration rather than relying on good vibes and social issues like Harris seemed to, I just think conservative Americans could do better than him, certainly can't see Trump's abrasive brash personality playing well in the UK. I am not at all convinced Trump's government will improve things for the average poor American, it seems to me a great deal of his votes were a 'f*ck you' protest vote against 'woke' (whatever that means) and immigration but I'm not convinced Trump/the GOP's answers to these issues will actually improve things, Trump certainly is unlikely to reach across the isle and try and unite the country I see things only getting more divided from now on.

And yeah Ukraine is f*cked, as a British guy I'm now wondering what this means for Europe's defence policies moving forwards, if Putin does win in Ukraine (which seems likely) he won't stop their I can easily see Poland or Lithuania being next...

I still think Biden would have likely lost as well (as it seems inflation/the economy was the main issue for independent voters) but he must be second guessing himself as I think he could have scraped a narrow win in the Electoral College...Harris appears to have shedded millions of voters I guess Americans just don't want a woman as president. Republican voters always vote Republican but the Democrat vote remains as fickle as ever.

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Well, that was worth the wait wasn't it  Suspect


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Post by Mrs Figg Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:12 pm

Nobody pretends Trump is a nice human being.

The positives as I see it.

As far as Ukraine is concerned what is it now but a gigantic meatgrinder for fighting age men on both sides. It is a forever war until they both exhaust the supply of bodies. A ceasefire is the only way forward and Trump may insist on it.

I hope Trump puts a swift stop to the free free plasticine! hamas supporting, antisemitic, middle-class cosplaying cretins. I hope he makes it illegal to openly support anti-American terrorist organisations and any campus that allows it gets defunded.

I hope Trump bans the mutilation of children with chemical castration and surgery. Only people from the age of 18 should be able to ruin their lives with their own consent.

I hope Trump removes sanctuary city status and builds The Wall. I hope there is mass deportation back to South American countries and Africa. I hope that cities once again become safe places for American citizens. No more illegals in hotels, social degradation, tent cities and crime off the charts. Only families with children should be allowed to stay.

I hope this is the end of the insidious DEI grift. And people are once again chosen for their character and skills not their skin colour.

Trump has a LOT of damage to reverse.

Mostly I hope he gives a rocket to David Lammy and Two Tier Keir.
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Post by malickfan Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:46 pm

Mrs Figg wrote:Nobody pretends Trump is a nice human being.

The positives as I see it.

As far as Ukraine is concerned what is it now but a gigantic meatgrinder for fighting age men on both sides. It is a forever war until they both exhaust the supply of bodies. A ceasefire is the only way forward and Trump may insist on it.

I hope Trump puts a swift stop to the free free plasticine! hamas supporting, antisemitic, middle-class cosplaying cretins. I hope he makes it illegal to openly support anti-American terrorist organisations and any campus that allows it gets defunded.

I hope Trump bans the mutilation of children with chemical castration and surgery. Only people from the age of 18 should be able to ruin their lives with their own consent.

I hope Trump removes sanctuary city status and builds The Wall. I hope there is mass deportation back to South American countries and Africa. I hope that cities once again become safe places for American citizens. No more illegals in hotels, social degradation, tent cities and crime off the charts. Only families with children should be allowed to stay.

I hope this is the end of the insidious DEI grift. And people are once again chosen for their character and skills not their skin colour.

Trump has a LOT of damage to reverse.

Mostly I hope he gives a rocket to David Lammy and Two Tier Keir.



I'm not convinced Putin would stop at a ceasefire...that's not to say I want the war to continue I just don't believe he will stop there if he wins now, letting Putin conquer a fellow European country whilst we stand idly by may be come back to bite us all on the arse in the future. Either way I have agreed with Trump from the start that Europe has been far too reliant on the United States, perhaps now it will be a wakeup call for our armed forces to get some badly needed recruitment and investment.

I don't doubt Trump will be very pro-Israel and sit by whilst the conflict continues, Hamas needs to be destroyed but bombing the shit out of the strip and killing thousands of civilians probably isn't going to make things any easier to bring that conflict to a end, Israel has the right to defend itself and people have the right to take issue with the numbers of innocent people being killed. if Trump wants to stay out of European conflicts he should then do the same with the Middle East i.m.o if he leaves Ukraine high and dry he should cut funding to Israel too i.m.o.

I know your views on the Transgender Issue, but do you think they'll stop there? (i don't generally know enough about this issue to comment, but I agree that adults should have the freedom to do what they want with their own bodies) If trans rights are rolled back. further LGBT, reproductive and workers rights will be next on the chopping board, for a party that screams about personal Freedom the GOP certainly seem keen to dictate what people do with their own bodies.

Trump had 4 years to build the wall and deport millions already, he didn't make much progress the first time, not entirely convinced he'll do so this time either. Whilst I agree Illegal immigration is a huge issue both in the US and the UK, spending millions deporting millions seems unrealistic. Nearly half of the people I work with in my job (night shift at a supermarket) are (legal) Immigrants to the UK and all hard workers and tax payers, I often feel that most British people see jobs such as mine beneath them, I certainly don't expect the average American being willing to say work 60-80 hours a week picking veg on a farm for low wages, deporting millions of low paid immigrants won't suddenly raise wages  for the low classes, the US minimum wage hasn't risen since 2009 for a reason.

You say Trump has a lot of damage to reverse, and whilst I agree America needs change I'm really not at all convinced he nor his likely cabinet picks are the best choices to do so, I only see the country growing more divided the further right the GOP moves. 

(Not that i think Harris was a great choice either, she would have got my vote in a swing state but otherwise I would have likely voted third party I feel...but both of us are looking at things from an outsiders perspective, Halfwise as an American is far more attuned to the reality on the ground). 


As for Stamer and Labour...well I didn't vote for them (and have never voted Labour) but absolutely personally loathe the Tories, so I'm willing to give him more of a chance, as someone from a working class background with limited options I don't really see much change no matter which party in is charge in the UK.

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Well, that was worth the wait wasn't it  Suspect


I think what comes out of a pig's rear end is more akin to what Peejers has given us-Azriel 20/9/2014
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Post by Mrs Figg Wed Nov 06, 2024 8:12 pm

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Post by Mrs Figg Wed Nov 06, 2024 8:25 pm

malickfan wrote:
Mrs Figg wrote:Nobody pretends Trump is a nice human being.

The positives as I see it.

As far as Ukraine is concerned what is it now but a gigantic meatgrinder for fighting age men on both sides. It is a forever war until they both exhaust the supply of bodies. A ceasefire is the only way forward and Trump may insist on it.

I hope Trump puts a swift stop to the free free plasticine! hamas supporting, antisemitic, middle-class cosplaying cretins. I hope he makes it illegal to openly support anti-American terrorist organisations and any campus that allows it gets defunded.

I hope Trump bans the mutilation of children with chemical castration and surgery. Only people from the age of 18 should be able to ruin their lives with their own consent.

I hope Trump removes sanctuary city status and builds The Wall. I hope there is mass deportation back to South American countries and Africa. I hope that cities once again become safe places for American citizens. No more illegals in hotels, social degradation, tent cities and crime off the charts. Only families with children should be allowed to stay.

I hope this is the end of the insidious DEI grift. And people are once again chosen for their character and skills not their skin colour.

Trump has a LOT of damage to reverse.

Mostly I hope he gives a rocket to David Lammy and Two Tier Keir.



I'm not convinced Putin would stop at a ceasefire...that's not to say I want the war to continue I just don't believe he will stop there if he wins now, letting Putin conquer a fellow European country whilst we stand idly by may be come back to bite us all on the arse in the future. Either way I have agreed with Trump from the start that Europe has been far too reliant on the United States, perhaps now it will be a wakeup call for our armed forces to get some badly needed recruitment and investment.




I don't doubt Trump will be very pro-Israel and sit by whilst the conflict continues, Hamas needs to be destroyed but bombing the shit out of the strip and killing thousands of civilians probably isn't going to make things any easier to bring that conflict to a end, Israel has the right to defend itself and people have the right to take issue with the numbers of innocent people being killed. if Trump wants to stay out of European conflicts he should then do the same with the Middle East i.m.o if he leaves Ukraine high and dry he should cut funding to Israel too i.m.o.

I think Putin knows he cant win without serious damage at home, after all those bodies have to come home and people won't stay quiet forever. Maybe giving him a way out to save his face may be an option. i cant think of any other way out


I know your views on the Transgender Issue, but do you think they'll stop there? (i don't generally know enough about this issue to comment, but I agree that adults should have the freedom to do what they want with their own bodies) If trans rights are rolled back. further LGBT, reproductive and workers rights will be next on the chopping board, for a party that screams about personal Freedom the GOP certainly seem keen to dictate what people do with their own bodies.

I seriously doubt that LGB rights would be affected. Being gay is totally normalized. When you say trans rights being rolled back, I think childrens rights to be protected sometimes from their own parents. In Britain it is parents who give consent to surgery because children dont have the mental capacity. Lifelong mutilation is even worse.


Trump had 4 years to build the wall and deport millions already, he didn't make much progress the first time, not entirely convinced he'll do so this time either. Whilst I agree Illegal immigration is a huge issue both in the US and the UK, spending millions deporting millions seems unrealistic. Nearly half of the people I work with in my job (night shift at a supermarket) are (legal) Immigrants to the UK and all hard workers and tax payers, I often feel that most British people see jobs such as mine beneath them, I certainly don't expect the average American being willing to say work 60-80 hours a week picking veg on a farm for low wages, deporting millions of low paid immigrants won't suddenly raise wages  for the low classes, the US minimum wage hasn't risen since 2009 for a reason.

The first time he was fighting other groups, now he has control of the House and Senate. There will alway be low paid immigrants, the only difference is they will be here legally and there should be quotas. How many illegals from Haiti on government handouts are going to contribute taxes?


You say Trump has a lot of damage to reverse, and whilst I agree America needs change I'm really not at all convinced he nor his likely cabinet picks are the best choices to do so, I only see the country growing more divided the further right the GOP moves. 

Personally I think that poisonous and divisive critical race theory and gender politics has divided far more than people on the right ever has.

(Not that i think Harris was a great choice either, she would have got my vote in a swing state but otherwise I would have likely voted third party I feel...but both of us are looking at things from an outsiders perspective, Halfwise as an American is far more attuned to the reality on the ground). 


As for Stamer and Labour...well I didn't vote for them (and have never voted Labour) but absolutely personally loathe the Tories, so I'm willing to give him more of a chance, as someone from a working class background with limited options I don't really see much change no matter which party in is charge in the UK


Starmer is attacking his own people. First the old folks, then the farmers, who is next?


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Mrs Figg
Mrs Figg
Eel Wrangler from Bree

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